Since past few months, Nalgonda MP by polls news are being widely circulated in the state as the current MP Gutta Sukendar Reddy has changed parties from Congress to TRS. CM KCR has been giving indications that he wants to test the Nalgonda waters by going for Nalgonda Lok Sabha by-polls and the Opposition is looking to stop the streak of TRS wins. Although several MLAs who have won on Congress tickets during the 2014 General Elections are now in TRS, TRS flared poorly in the district as it has been a home for Congress stalwarts and the significant presence of Communist party. A survey has been conducted to assess the situation in the event of by-polls for Nalgonda Lok Sabha constituency and the findings not pleasant for both the ruling party and the opposition.
At the first glance, TRS party seems to enjoy utmost electoral support with a preference at 48%. The major opposition Congress party stands in second with 27% support, followed by TDP at 8% and BJP at 4%. TRS has gained a whopping 25% points from it last election performance in 2014. A major shift of support, about 16%, happened from TDP/BJP to TRS. The biggest loser was Congress which has lost 12% of its vote share down from 39.69% from 2014 election performance. According to the survey, TRS party victory seems a cakewalk with lead of 25% percentage points. But, as we introduce candidate names into the mix, TRS lead started to fade away.
When the TPCC President and current MLA of Huzurnagar, MR.Uttam Kumar Reddy is projected as the candidate, Congress vote share significantly jumps from 27% to 32%. A deeper analysis on the voting preferences reveals even more interesting insights. The 48% TRS support is not sure shot figure to achieve as it included leaning congress voters about 6.3% and another 3% of the voters who were congress voters before but are predominantly undecided and are leaning TRS as a lack of a good candidate from Congress. When these TRS leaning otherwise Congress voters are presented with Uttam Kumar Reddy as congress candidate, about 8% of these have shown favorability towards Congress. Assuming Uttam Kumar Reddy banks all these votes, it will put Congress at a solid performance of 40% while TRS coming down to 42%. This dramatically changes by poll scenario as this will push the survey result into a statistical tie.
This is exactly why Nalgonda By poll is not an easy win as it appears. What TRS is looking for is not a mere win but an emphatic victory with majority over 1 lakh voters. As it is not just about winning the Nalgonda MP seat, but how the base can be excited running up to 2019 General Elections. Anything that is less than a 50K majority may have a negative input on TRS party morale, specially with the survey showing a static tie.
The Devil is in the Detail
Of all people sampled in the Nalgonda Lok Sabha constituency wide, only 34% of the people are completely satisfied with TRS party governance. Although this is not the CM KCR’S leadership performance indication, a lot of local factors, MLA’s and the way policy implemented in the ground level has to do with such a low satisfaction rate. On the other side of the spectrum a 20% of the people completely dissatisfied and have shown disinterest in TRS governance.
Strangely, TRS party had completed over 3 years rule but still have 48% of the people who have not made up their mind about its performance. Although, this is not a negative fact for TRS in Nalgonda, this can easily made a positive thing for the opposition, with a little hard work. Moreover, the large “no opinion” votes are indicating that the development agenda may not play favorable for TRS as voters still don’t see “development” in a sure-shot positive light.
In spite of the huge success of TRS flagship policies like Aasara Pensions (28%), Roads (24%) and Kalyana Lakshmi (15%), a strong dissatisfaction comes from the performance of Double Bedroom flats (26%), and Jobs (16%). The other interesting fact is – those who positively see Mission Bhagheeradha providing drinking water (13%) is almost equal to those who see it otherwise(11%).
Taking further cues from issues to be handled immediately in the constituency, TRS may have uphill task ahead as the top issues are employment (18%), sanitation (12%) drinking water (11%) and housing (10%). As TSPSC could not provide enough jobs in the district coupled with bad show on delivery of Double bedroom houses, TRS party has to work hard to convince voters on development agenda.
On the contrary, the situation is not as rosy for Congress as it seems. A lot of Congress supporters have indicated a favorable view of Komati Reddy brothers which would make them crucial support for Uttam Kumar Reddy to have. Looking at the way how the potential CM candidates the district played internal tussle in the past in 2014 GE, the biggest obstacles for Uttam Kumar Reddy is within the party, not outside
Although Congress is seemed as more close to the SC’s than TRS, Congress is not able to cash in the dissatisfaction in SCs that stemmed from incomplete implementation of “3-Acre land to SC’s” and only mere 22% SC’s are supporting Congress. Further, Congress is seen as more favorable on employment creation and about 14% of the electorate thinks jobs a big issue in the state, but the youngsters of Nalgonda are only partially supporting(31%) Congress. The most popular policy- Aasara pension scheme of KCR- is eating away Congress women’s support. Only 32% of the woman have showed preference towards Congress. Therefore, for congress it is even more tougher to win Nalgonda by poll.
It is evident that mere win is not a good sign for TRS in the context of 2019 General Election and Congress has large ground to cover with Uttam Kumar Reddy as its candidate. Nalgonda by-poll is a gamble for both CM KCR and Congress. It is better for TRS to not to push for Gutta Sukender Reddy’s resignation.
Methodology: A 1024 voters have randomly sampled from the current voter lists based on the multistage stratified sampling method. The representative sample includes the voters from Nagarjuna Sagar, Nalgonga, Suryapet, Miryalaguda, Kodad, Huzurnagar, and Devarakonda. The Survey is conduced between October 1st and October 20th. The sampled voters were interviewed personally. The survey is a collaborative effort by “Campaign 360” and “Pramanya Strategy Consulting” and the lead researchers are Subhash Chandra and Hari Kasula.
