Category: 2015 Delhi Election

Delhi Elections: Is BJP Win So Obvious ?

Is BJP’s victory in Delhi assembly elections so obvious as it is being projected? Can AAP fight back and live up to Delhi’s expectation? The recent survey by India Today and CICERO points out few conclusions that indicate AAP can perform better. Besides being a “statistical tie”, the survey has shed light on ways AAP can improve its performance.

The survey has summed up that BJP is going to get 39% vote while AAP lagging behind with 36% of the vote share. Overall vote share from the report is one measure, among others. In fact, it is not the only measure that decides who is going to get the majority. At the bottom of the story lies the other important measures that are as crucial as overall vote share in determining the ultimate winner.

55% of the respondents said AAP deserves a second chance while 47% said AAP is going to form the government. It can be safely assumed that all those 36% solid voters are a subset of voters who think AAP deserves a second chance, and a subset of voters who think AAP will form the government. It brings about the fact that there are 11% voters who think AAP can form the government, but not voting for it. Further, 19% voters sympathize AAP that it deserves a second chance but not voting for AAP. There is a real possibility that AAP could increase their vote share by tapping into these sympathizers. On the contrary, there are only 3% voters who think BJP will form the government but not voting for it as only 42% of the respondents said BJP will form the government.

Further, the survey reports the levels of public negativity on AAP of their 49-day rule. 51% of the respondents said that they felt cheated by AAP for renouncing the opportunity to run the government, 53% felt that AAP is not matured enough to run the government, and 54% said that AAP is more interested in doing “Dharna” than running the government. Assuming these are the critical measures that make a voter to prefer other parties than AAP, there could be a maximum 54% voters who might not vote for AAP. That leaves 46% of the voters, who either want to vote for AAP or may have not decided on who to vote for. As the survey pointed out that there are 36% of solid AAP voters, it leaves a 10% of the voters who don’t have negative opinions about AAP but not yet convinced to vote AAP.

In summary, there are
1. 11% voters who think AAP is winning, but not voting AAP,
2. 19% voters who think AAP deserves a second chance, but not voting AAP
3. 10% voters who do not have negative opinion about AAP, but have not committed to vote AAP.
These lead us to believe that there is a significant portion of voters who belong to some combination of these 3 types and AAP can persuade them with right messaging. If AAP could gain 4% more votes in a addition to current 36% solid vote, it can give BJP a run for their victory.

India Today – CICERO Poll on Delhi Elections: It is a TIE

The methodology section of India Today – CICERO poll on upcoming Delhi Assembly elections reports that the sample size was 4273 and the sample was spread across 210 polling stations covering all the 70 segments of the Delhi Assembly. In the recent General Election, The Election Commission of India has reported that there were about 1.27 crore voters in NCT Delhi. Assuming the sample is representative, the results from the poll using the sample size of 4273 from 1.27 crore voters will have a Margin Of Error (MoE) of 1.5%. MoE adds a range to the actual results by setting the lower limit at “Result (minus) MoE” and the upper limit at “Result (plus) MoE”. In this case, the poll reported that BJP is going to get 39% and AAP is going to get 36% of the total vote. What the poll actually saying is BJP is going to get anywhere between 37.5% (39% -1.5%) and 40.5% (39+1.5%) vote. Similarly, AAP is going to get anywhere between 34.5% (36% -1.5%) and 37.5% (36%+ 1.5%). In order to write-off a clear lead, the difference between the measured results must be more than twice the Margin of Error, in this case it is 3% (1.5% X 2). Here, the difference between the projected vote share of BJP and AAP is exactly 3%. That means, the difference could fall within in the MoE as the probability of both BJP and AAP getting 37.5% is same as BJP getting 39.5% and AAP getting 34.5% vote. As a result, the survey outcome is a statistical tie, which means that victory for BJP in Delhi elections is as likely as it is to AAP.

References:
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp-modi-arvind-kejriwal-delhi-assembly-polls-india-today-cicero-poll/1/407623.html